CHEVRON CORP (CVX) Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

Q1 2025 adjusted EPS of $2.18 and GAAP diluted EPS of $2.00; adjusted EPS modestly above S&P Global consensus, while revenue and EBITDA came in below consensus due to lower refined product margins, lower realizations, and unfavorable FX/tax items . EPS beat; revenue and EBITDA miss*.
Total earnings were $3.5B vs $5.5B a year ago; CFFO was $5.2B (ex-WC $7.6B); shareholder returns were $6.9B (dividends $3.0B, buybacks $3.9B) .
Operationally, Ballymore achieved first oil and TCO ramped to nameplate capacity, with net production flat YoY as asset sales offset growth in TCO, Permian and Gulf of America .
Management guided Q2 buybacks to $2.5–$3.0B and reiterated the $10–$20B annual repurchase framework; cost program targets $2–$3B structural savings by end of 2026; balance sheet remains strong at 14.4% net debt ratio .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Rapid execution at TCO: “We reached nameplate capacity in just 30 days… we expect cash distributions from TCO to increase going forward, including a $1 billion loan repayment in the third quarter” .
Gulf of America momentum: Ballymore first oil (up to 75 kbpd gross from three wells) on time/on budget; Whale and Anchor ramping with multi-well programs through 2025–2027 .
Permian performance resilience: Higher production and improved type curves in Delaware Basin; 2025 program ~85% Delaware, expecting resumed growth toward a sustained 1 mmboe/d in Q2 .

What Went Wrong

Downstream margin pressure: U.S. downstream earnings fell to $103MM vs $453MM last year on lower refined product margins and legal reserve; international downstream also declined YoY .
Lower realizations and equity affiliate income: Both upstream segments saw lower realizations YoY; TCO affiliate earnings impacted by higher DD&A despite FGP ramp .
FX and tax headwinds: Foreign currency effects reduced earnings by $138MM; UK energy profits levy changes contributed to tax charges; special items net loss of $175MM .

Financial Results

Metric	Q3 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
Sales & other operating revenues ($USD Billions)	$48.926	$48.334	$46.101
Total revenues & other income ($USD Billions)	$50.669	$52.226	$47.610
Net income ($USD Billions)	$4.487	$3.239	$3.500
Diluted EPS (GAAP) ($)	$2.48	$1.84	$2.00
Adjusted EPS ($)	$2.51	$2.06	$2.18
EBITDA ($USD Billions)	—	—	$8.567*
EBITDA margin (%)	—	—	18.5%*
Net income margin (%) (NI/Total rev.)	8.9%	6.2%	7.4%

Values with asterisk retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment earnings (USD Millions)

Segment	Q3 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
U.S. Upstream	$1,946	$1,420	$1,858
International Upstream	$2,643	$2,884	$1,900
U.S. Downstream	$146	$(348)	$103
International Downstream	$449	$100	$222
All Other	$(697)	$(817)	$(583)
Total Earnings	$4,487	$3,239	$3,500

Selected KPIs

KPI	Q3 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
Net oil-equivalent production (MBOED)	3,364	3,350	3,353
ROCE (%)	10.1%	7.6%	8.3%
Capex ($B)	$4.055	$4.338	$3.927
Affiliate Capex ($B)	$0.565	$0.635	$0.488
CFFO ($B)	$9.7	$8.7	$5.2
CFFO ex-WC ($B)	$8.3	$5.3	$7.6
Free cash flow ($B)	$5.6	$4.4	$1.3
FCF ex-WC ($B)	$4.2	$1.0	$3.7
Net debt ratio (%)	11.9%	10.4%	14.4%

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Share repurchases	Q2 2025	Not previously specified quarterly	$2.5–$3.0B pace	Lower vs recent run-rate
Annual buyback framework	2025	$10–$20B (introduced >2 years ago)	$10–$20B unchanged	Maintained
Dividend	Q2 2025	$1.71 declared (raised in Q1)	$1.71 declared, payable June 10, 2025	Maintained
Capex budget	2025	2024 Capex: $16.4B	2025 organic CapEx -$1B; affiliate CapEx -$1B vs 2024	Lowered
Structural cost program	Through 2026	Target $2–$3B reductions (announced)	Target $2–$3B reductions reiterated	Maintained
Balance sheet leverage target	Through cycle	Net debt 20–25% target	Reiterated; current ~14%	Maintained
TCO cash distributions	2025	—	Expect increase; $1B loan repayment in Q3	New detail

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q3 2024, Q4 2024)	Current Period (Q1 2025)	Trend
AI/power solutions for data centers	JV announced to develop scalable gas-turbine power with CCS flexibility	Inorganic CapEx ~$400MM; narrowing sites; aiming FID before YE; disciplined returns	Advancing
Supply chain/tariffs	General macro and cost focus	Preparing mitigations; limited direct exposure; ~1% impact to shale well costs estimated	Manageable
Macro/OPEC+/Kazakhstan	TCO start-ups and turnarounds; quotas not discussed	TCO ramp to nameplate; concession extension talks positive; no OPEC+ curtailment discussions	Positive execution; policy watch
U.S. Downstream/California	Pasadena upgrade; margin pressures in Q4	California policy risk noted; no refinery announcements; El Segundo reliability improved; Pasadena LTO project complete	Mixed: ops improving, policy risk
Permian operations	Record production; PDC synergy capture	Type curves improving; oil cut ~43–45%; NOJV activity steady; growth resumes Q2	Improving
Gulf of America projects	Anchor/Whale start-ups	Ballymore first oil; multi-well ramps at Anchor/Ballymore; tieback-focused exploration	Strong execution

Management Commentary

“Cash returned to shareholders has exceeded $5 billion for 12 consecutive quarters… we returned $6.9 billion through dividends and buybacks” .
“We reached nameplate capacity in just 30 days [at TCO]… expect cash distributions to increase… including a $1 billion loan repayment in the third quarter” .
“We expect share repurchases to be $2.5 billion to $3 billion in the second quarter… guidance range for annual buybacks $10–$20 billion remains unchanged” .
“Ballymore… on time and on budget… expected to produce up to 75,000 gross barrels per day from three wells” .
“Our balance sheet remains strong with net debt ratio of 14%… AA credit rating” .

Q&A Highlights

Capital returns pacing: Management emphasized through-the-cycle buyback framework; Q2 pace set at $2.5–$3.0B given macro, with annual $10–$20B range intact .
TCO and Kazakhstan: Strong ramp; positive tone on concession extension negotiations; no OPEC+ curtailment discussions; expected $1B loan repayment in Q3 .
Gulf of America execution: Ballymore and Anchor wells ramping; multi-phase development plans; weather is principal risk; breakevens improved via standardization .
Permian strategy: Delaware-driven program, stable oil cut; NOJV and royalty activity steady; partners maintaining course .
Tariffs: Limited direct exposure; sourced domestically for shale programs; anticipated manageable (~1%) cost impact to shale wells .

Estimates Context

Actual vs S&P Global consensus for Q1 2025

Metric	Consensus	Actual	Result
EPS (Primary) ($)	2.152*	2.18*	Beat (~$0.03)*
Revenue ($USD Billions)	48.394*	46.265*	Miss (~$2.13B)*
EBITDA ($USD Billions)	10.145*	8.567*	Miss (~$1.58B)*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Implications: The modest EPS beat vs lower revenue/EBITDA suggests mix/pricing/FX/tax items helped EPS (adjustments and affiliate distributions), but core margin pressure in downstream and lower realizations weighed on top-line and EBITDA .

Key Takeaways for Investors

Execution strength offsets macro: TCO and Gulf of America start-ups provide tangible volume/cash flow catalysts into 2H’25–2026, supporting management’s incremental ~$9–$10B FCF growth aspirations at $60–$70 Brent .
Capital returns remain robust but flexible: Buybacks paced down near-term ($2.5–$3.0B in Q2) while $10–$20B annual range is reiterated, preserving balance sheet strength (net debt ~14%) for optionality .
Downstream under pressure: Lower margins and legal reserve weighed on U.S. downstream; watch Pasadena/El Segundo reliability improvements and Gulf Coast integration benefits for margin recovery .
Permian trajectory intact: Higher frac activity expected to resume growth toward 1 mmboe/d; steady NOJV/royalty activity reduces volatility .
Tariff risk manageable: Limited goods exposure and domestic sourcing point to minor (~1%) cost impact on shale wells; monitor policy developments .
Near-term trading: Mix of operational positives (Ballymore/TCO) vs macro margin/realizations may cap near-term multiple expansion; catalysts include Q3 TCO cash repayment, Q2 buyback pace, AI power venture FID before YE .
Medium-term thesis: Portfolio shift to lower-decline assets plus deepwater tiebacks and cost discipline support durable FCF growth and sustained capital returns through cycles .

Notes and sources:

Chevron Q1 2025 8-K earnings press release and attachments (financials, segments, cash flow, ROCE, balance sheet) .
Q1 2025 earnings call transcript (prepared remarks and Q&A) .
Ballymore first oil press release (project specifics) .
Prior quarters’ 8-Ks for trend analysis (Q4 2024, Q3 2024) .